Verma, Bhupendra Kumar, Verma, Mamta, Verma, Vikash Kumar, Abdullah, Rifah B., Nath, Dilip C., Khan, Hafiz T.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1817-3730, Verma, Anita, Vishwakarma, Ramesh K. and Verma, Vivek (2020) Global lockdown: An effective safeguard in responding to the threat of COVID-19. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice. ISSN 1356-1294

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Abstract

Rationale, aims, and objectives: The recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) has infected around 1,560,000 individuals till 10th April 2020, which has resulted in 95,000 deaths globally. While no vaccine or anti-viral drugs for COVID-19 are available, lockdown acts as a protective public health measures to reduce human interaction and lower transmission. The study aims to explore the impact of delayed planning or lack of planning for the lockdown and inadequate implementation of the lockdown, on the transmission rate of COVID-19.

Method: Epidemiological data on the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 cases as reported by public health authorities were accessed from six countries based on total number of infected cases, viz., (United States of America (USA) and Italy (more than 100,000 cases); United Kingdom (UK), and France (50,000 to 100,000 cases), and India and Russia (6,000 to 10,000 cases).The Bayesian inferential technique was used to observe the changes (three points) in pattern of number of cases on different duration of exposure (in days)in these selected countries one month after WHO declaration about COVID-19 as a global pandemic.

Results: On comparing the pattern of transmission rates observed in these six countries at posterior estimated change points, it is found that partial implementation of lockdown (in the USA), delayed planning in lockdown (Russia, UK and France), and inadequate implementation of the lockdown (in India and Italy) were responsible to the spread of infections.

Conclusions: In order to control the spreading of COVID-19, like other national and international laws, lockdown must be implemented and enforced. It is suggested that on-time or adequate implementation of lockdown is a step towards social distancing and to control the spread of this pandemic.

Item Type:	Article
Identifier:	10.1111/jep.13483
Additional Information:	This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: [ Verma, BK, Verma, M, Verma, VK, et al. Global lockdown: An effective safeguard in responding to the threat of COVID‐19. J Eval Clin Pract. 2020; 1– 7. https://doi.org/10.1111/jep.13483], which has been published in final form at: https://doi.org/10.1111/jep.13483. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.
Keywords:	Social distancing; Posterior distribution; Marginal distribution; Credible interval
Subjects:	Medicine and health > Health promotion and public health Medicine and health
Related URLs:	Publisher
Depositing User:	Hafiz T.A. Khan
Date Deposited:	01 Sep 2020 14:29
Last Modified:	04 Nov 2024 11:47
URI:	https://repository.uwl.ac.uk/id/eprint/7278

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