An account of subjective probability judgment for joint events: conjunctive and disjunctive

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Fisk, J. E., Marshall, D. A., Rogers, P. and Stock, Rosemary (2019) An account of subjective probability judgment for joint events: conjunctive and disjunctive. Scandinavian Journal Of Psychology, 60 (5). pp. 405-420. ISSN 0036-5564

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Abstract

Probability judgement is a vital part of many aspects of everyday life. In the present paper, we present a new theory of the way in which individuals produce probability estimates for joint events: conjunctive and disjunctive. We propose that a majority of individuals produce conjunctive (disjunctive) estimates by making a quasi-random adjustment, positive or negative, from the less (more) likely component probability with the other component playing no obvious role. In two studies, we produce evidence supporting propositions that follow from our theory. First, the component probabilities do appear to play the distinct roles we propose in determining the joint event probabilities. Second, contrary to probability theory and other accounts of probability judgement, we show that the conjunctive-less likely probability difference is unrelated to the more likely- disjunctive probability difference (in normative theory these quantities are identical). In conclusion, while violating the norms of probability judgement, we argue that estimates produced in the manner we propose will be close enough to the normative values especially given the changing nature of the external environment and the incomplete nature of available information.

Item Type: Article
Identifier: 10.1111/sjop.12560
Additional Information: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: An account of subjective probability judgment for joint events: Fisk, J. E., Marshall, D. A., Rogers, P., & Stock, R. (2019). An account of subjective probability judgment for joint events: Conjunctive and disjunctive. Scandinavian journal of psychology, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/sjop.12560. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.
Keywords: conjunction, disjunction, fallacy, probability judgement
Subjects: Psychology
Depositing User: Rosemary Stock
Date Deposited: 15 May 2019 11:34
Last Modified: 06 Feb 2024 15:59
URI: https://repository.uwl.ac.uk/id/eprint/6060

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