Rabbi, Ahbab Mohammad Fazle and Khan, Hafiz T.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1817-3730 (2024) Effect of excess mortality on longevity during the COVID‐19 pandemic in South Asia. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice, 31. ISSN 1356-1294

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Abstract

Background:
Throughout the twentieth century and beyond, a global trend of declining mortality rates and an increase in life expectancies was noted until the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. A reduction in life expectancies was observed in most countries, including South Asia, during 2020 and 2021 due to the excess mortality caused by the pandemic.

Objective:
This study aims to examine the change in life expectancy in selected South Asian countries and the relative change in age- and sex-specific mortality rates over time due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to that, we further examined the effect of pandemic on short term forecast of life expectancy.

Data and methods: Estimated age- and sex-specific mortality rates of seven South Asian countries were utilized from the 2022 revision of the World Population Prospects (WPP 2022). Changes in life expectancies are estimated using standard life table estimation techniques. To estimate the relative change in age- and sex-specific mortality levels and change in mortality forecasts as a result of the pandemic, we applied the Lee-Carter method.

Results:
The application of the Lee-Carter model revealed age- and sex-specific variations in mortality improvements, reflecting heightened mortality rates within the region. This decline in mortality improvement is highly observed for both sexes in Pakistan, followed by India and Bangladesh. Populations exhibiting slower rates of improvement throughout their lifespan demonstrated minimal alterations attributable to the pandemic’s impact. Comparative life expectancy forecasts indicate a slower rise in post-pandemic life expectancy at birth and in remaining life expectancies at older ages among most of these populations.

Conclusion:
These findings highlight the pandemic’s profound impact on mortality dynamics, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to mitigate its long-term effects on population health and longevity.

Item Type:	Article
Identifier:	10.1111/jep.14258
Additional Information:	This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Rabbi, A.M.F. and Khan, H.T.A. (2025), Effect of Excess Mortality on Longevity During the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Asia. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice, 31: e14258, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/jep.14258. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.
Keywords:	Longevity; Lee-Carter method; Developing countries; COVID-19 pandemic
Subjects:	Medicine and health > Health promotion and public health
Date Deposited:	11 Dec 2024
Dates:	Date Publication status 10 December 2024 Accepted 19 December 2024 Published
School, department or research centre:	School of Medicine and Biosciences
Keywords:	Longevity; Lee-Carter method; Developing countries; COVID-19 pandemic
URI:	https://repository.uwl.ac.uk/id/eprint/12989

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