Time-to-death approach in revealing chronicity and severity of COVID-19 across the world

Verma, Vivek, Vishwakarma, Ramesh, Verma, Anita, Nath, Dilip and Khan, Hafiz T.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1817-3730 (2020) Time-to-death approach in revealing chronicity and severity of COVID-19 across the world. Plos One, 15 (5).

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Abstract

Background
The outbreak of coronavirus disease, 2019 (COVID-19), which started from Wuhan, China,in late 2019, have spread worldwide. A total of 5,91,971 cases and 2,70,90 deaths were registered till 28th March, 2020. We aimed to predict the impact of duration of exposure to COVID-19 on the mortality rates increment.

Methods
In the present study, data on COVID-19 infected top seven countries viz., Germany, China, France, United Kingdom, Iran, Italy and Spain, and World as a whole, were used for modeling. The analytical procedure of generalized linear model followed by Gompertz link function was used to predict the impact lethal duration of exposure on the mortality rates.

Findings
Of the selected countries and World as whole, the projection based on 21st March, 2020 cases, suggest that a total (95% Cl) of 76 (65–151) days of exposure in Germany, mortality rate will increase by 5 times to 1%. In countries like France and United Kingdom, our projection suggests that additional exposure of 48 days and 7 days, respectively, will raise the mortality rates to 10%. Regarding Iran, Italy and Spain, mortality rate will rise to 10% with an additional 3–10 days of exposure. World’s mortality rates will continue increase by 1% in every three weeks. The predicted interval of lethal duration corresponding to each country has found to be consistent with the mortality rates observed on 28th March, 2020.

Conclusion
The prediction of lethal duration was found to have apparently effective in predicting mortality, and shows concordance with prevailing rates. In absence of any vaccine against COVID-19 infection, the present study adds information about the quantum of the severity and time elapsed to death will help the Government to take necessary and appropriate steps to control this pandemic.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2020 Verma et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability: The data underlying the results presented in the study is available at Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data).
Subjects: Medicine and health > Health promotion and public health
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Hafiz T.A. Khan
Date Deposited: 13 May 2020 09:17
Last Modified: 24 Sep 2020 09:55
URI: http://repository.uwl.ac.uk/id/eprint/6939

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