Dickins, Tom ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5788-0948 (2026) From parameter uncertainty to process simulation: rethinking collision risk models. Ecological Modelling, 16 (9). ISSN 0304-3800

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Abstract

Collision Risk Models (CRMs) are central to environmental assessment for offshore wind but operate under data limitations and uncertain ecological assumptions. While stochastic extensions incorporate parameter uncertainty,
the basic approach remains structurally unchanged, treating collision risk as a function of uncertain inputs rather than as the outcome of underlying behavioural and spatial processes. This paper argues for a shift from parameter estimation to simulation. Agent-based models (ABMs) provide a necessary extension to CRMs by simulating bird movement, behavioural responses, and interactions with turbine arrays. In this framework, collision risk emerges from generative processes rather than being imposed through fixed parameters such as avoidance rates. ABMs complement deterministic and stochastic CRMs, support scenario testing, generate synthetic data under data scarcity, and provide mechanistic insight into collision risk. ABMs have not been integrated
into regulatory collision risk assessment but doing so would enhance the biological realism of collision modelling, offering a more robust basis for decision-making in offshore wind consenting.

Item Type:	Article
Identifier:	10.1136/bmjopen-2026-122720
Keywords:	Offshore windConsentingCollision risk modelAgent-based model
Subjects:	Construction and engineering
Date Deposited:	09 Sep 2026
Dates:	Date Publication status 31 August 2026 Accepted 4 September 2026 Published Online
School, department or research centre:	School of Human and Social Sciences
Keywords:	Offshore windConsentingCollision risk modelAgent-based model
URI:	https://repository.uwl.ac.uk/id/eprint/15295
Sustainable Development Goals:	Goal 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

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